Summary (The main document is written in Swedish)
Can the 'Wallander films' be used to promote SkÃ¥ne?
The value of the â€Wallander filmsâ€ exposure of SkÃ¥ne,
and their effect on the tourist industry.
The value of the exposure of SkÃ¥ne in the Wallander films with Swedish actor Krister Henriksson as Wallander (13 stories 2005-2006) is calculated to be 584 million kronor.
This figure is based on a predicted audience for the films between 2005 and 2008 of 128 million. This analysis relates this figure to the value of product placement and the average number of SkÃ¥ne references (including references in dialogue, visual references etc.) in the films. The value of this is based on the cost per contact of television or cinema advertising. Instead of using the term â€˜product placementâ€™, this analysis refers to â€˜context placement.â€™
Predicted audiences, cost per contact and effects on tourism are calculated cautiously throughout. The true value of the films is undoubtedly higher, but given the number of uncertain variables and to avoid exaggerating the results, this report has chosen to underestimate rather than overestimate throughout.
The films will be shown in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Germany. These countries have confirmed distribution agreements and the audience predictions are based on information from distributors. Where such information is not available, calculations are based on how similar Swedish films have been received. The films have also been sold in Croatia, Greece and Spain, but it is unclear how large the audiences will be in these countries.
Regardless of how the Wallander films are regarded by audiences and critics, they can be sure of some success because of the effect of Henning Mankellâ€™s international-bestselling crime novels.
Effects on the tourist industry
The exposure of cities and regions in films influences how we perceive the world. Films can also to some extent affect our choice of holiday destination. This report presents two scenarios for effects on the tourist industry, one with a smaller effect than the other.
Experiences from similar regions show how exposure in an internationally successful film can increase tourism to the region by 4-10 percent per year for the three years following the filmâ€™s release. It is crucial in this context to define a measure of success for a film and a measure of successful exposure of a region in a film.
The first scenario assumes that the hype over Wallander in Germany peters out and that the mooted BBC adaptation of the Wallander stories is either put on ice or flops. This would give an average increase in tourism of 1.37 percent per year (4.2 percent between 2006-2008). Translated into commercial guest nights, this corresponds to 72,000 units per year or 216,000 units between 2006 and 2008. An calculation of the probable number of guest nights (in all categories) and day visitors gives an increase of 830,000 between 2006 and 2008. This scenario gives a value of 308-518 million kronor for the period.
The other scenario assumes that the films are well-received in Germany and that the interest in Wallander is maintained. It also assumes that the BBC production goes ahead and is a success, which could have significant effects on the number of British tourists during the period.
Under this scenario an average increase of 3.16 percent per year (9.8 percent 2006-2008) is predicted. Translated into commercial guest nights, this gives 170,000 per year or 509,000 over three years. Translated into total number of guest nights and day visitors, it gives an increase of 1.96 million between 2006 and 2008. This scenario would give an increase in turnover from tourism of 724-1 200 million kronor over the period.
If the analysis is limited to those countries in which the films are due to be shown, the increase in the number of commercial guest nights 2006-2008 can be calculated as 166,000 according to scenario 1 or 448,